Temporal stability of preferences and willingness to pay for natural areas in choice experiments: A test–retest

The main objective of this paper is to test the temporal stability of stated preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) values from a Choice Experiment (CE) in a test–retest. The same group of participants was asked the same choice tasks in an internet-based CE, conducted twice with a time interval of one year without interviewer interference. We examine choice consistency at individual choice task level and transferability of the underlying indirect utility function and associated WTP values. The results show that choices are consistent in 57 percent of the choice occasions. Comparison of the choice models over time shows that the estimated preference and scale parameters are significantly different, suggesting that choice behaviour changed between the two surveys. Differences between marginal WTP estimates for individual choice attributes are statistically significant only at the 10 percent level. However, we show that this can result in significantly different WTP values for policy scenarios. The instability of estimated mean WTP values for different policy scenarios asks for caution when including WTP values in cost-benefit analysis.     

The Output Effect of a Transition to Price Stability When Velocity Is Time Varying

This paper explores the effect of time‐varying velocity on output responses to policies for reducing/stopping inflation. We study a dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices in which we introduce time‐varying velocity. Specifically, we endogenize time‐varying velocity into the model developed by Ireland (1997) for analyzing optimal disinflation. The nonlinear solution method reveals that, depending on velocity, the “disinflationary boom” found by Ball (1994) may disappear even under perfect credibility and that early output losses may be much larger than previously thought. Indeed, we find that a gradual disinflation from a low inflation may even be undesirable.     

Measuring market distortion: international comparisons,policy and competitiveness

This paper develops a framework to simultaneously estimate production possibility frontiers and measure distortions in factor and product markets. The econometric results, based on a panel of 61 countries over the period 1970 through 1985, reveal very little distortion in factor markets but considerable distortion in product markets. In addition, the distortions tend to vary with the cyclical behaviour of economic activity. Further, the results suggest that in order to improve efficiency, commercial policy should aim at reducing product-market distortions rather than factor-market ones.     

Stability of international stock market relationships across month of the year and different holding intervals

Potential benefits from international diversification depend upon the stability in stock market relationships. Using monthly data of 11 international stock markets, this paper examines the stability in stock market relationships across month of the year and across different holding intervals. Empirical results show that the correlation structure is more stable than the covariance structure. While empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that the correlation structure is very stable across different holding intervals, the empirical support for the stability in correlation structure across month of the year is much weaker.     

Saltatory Ontogeny and the Life-History Model: Neglected Processes and Patterns of Evolution

A single cell – an egg – cannot be in the same stabilized state as a differentiated multicellular embryo or reproducing adult. The entire ontogeny must, therefore, consist of a sequence of stabilized states. Ontogeny of a phenotype cannot progress gradually but is a saltatory homeorhetic system, proceeding via natural thresholds from one self organized state to the next, hierarchically ever more complex and specialized. The natural boundaries of ontogeny – the far-from-stabilized thresholds – represent also states when changes can be easiest inserted or induced, and especially in the early ontogeny, from the intervals where evolution (change) can occur. As a result, ontogeny can also be divided into distinct life-history intervals called periods, be it embryo, larva (infant, pup), juvenile, adult and senescence, each divided in turn into phases, and each of these into natural steps. It is left to the imagination of scholars in social sciences to find parallels of saltation in economics and history.     

浅析我国当前通货膨胀的成因及治理对策建议

稳定物价已成为政府宏观调控的重中之重。为避免由于种种原因形成的通货膨胀给我国经济发展带来较大的负面影响,我们必须采取相关措施,要持续的将总量政策和结构政策相很好的组合起来,进行短期应急计划和措施与建立能长期保证制度正常运行并发挥预期功能的制度体系相结合,综合的采取各种各样的政策组合,比较有指向性地使用各种各样的措施在一定程度上减少对造成物价上涨的各种不利因素,抑制通货膨胀蔓延,使我国经济稳定的发展。     

岩土边坡稳定性的遗传算法分析

非线性优化方法主要缺陷在于当边坡土层为非均质复杂条件时,无法保证搜索到安全系数的全局最小解,而只能搜索到局部极小解。基于遗传算法,建立了搜索岩土边坡稳定性分析最小安全系数和滑移面中心坐标与半径的数值方法。问题的可行解在变量搜索区间内搜索,包括滑弧的圆心坐标和半径。数值模拟结果表明,遗传算法搜索到的边坡稳定最小安全系数与理论解是一致的。     

基于Logistic共生模型的汽车园集群研究及稳定性分析

汽车园集群内不同类型企业间的关系类似于种群生态学中不同种群间的相互作用,文章通过逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)模型描述汽车园集群内不同企业间的相互作用。总结了集群内平等型和依托型两种共生模式,求解并分析稳定条件。对汽车园集群这一汽车流通业最新模式的研究具有一定指导意义。     

天然气输送离心式压缩机组故障诊断方法研究

文章介绍了天然气输送离心式压缩机组的常见故障,分析了故障原因及特征,进而对其故障诊断技术现状进行了总结和比较,在此基础上针对输气动力设备故障的复杂性提出了应用数据挖掘技术对离心式压缩机组进行故障诊断的初步设想。     

A Critical Assessment of Basel III and its Implications on the Mauritian Banking Sector

This paper probes into the application of Basel III in Mauritius. Findings show that although Mauritian banks are well-capitalized and carry excess liquidity, they will have to restructure their balance sheets by incorporating highly liquid assets such as government securities. While Basel III will foster greater financial stability, this will translate into lower supply of credit, higher cost of credit and lower returns with potential strains on SME lending. Similarly, Bank of Mauritius’s ability to control credit growth will be hindered because banks’ existing leverage ratios are already higher than the stipulated minimum leverage ratio of 3%. To harness the full benefits of the reforms, additional measures tailored to the specificities of the Mauritian economy will be needed. Other challenges prevail like establishing robust data management, risk methodologies, reporting systems and IT architecture as well as identifying the timing and the size of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer. Local banks anticipate Basel IV in the coming years as a refined tool.